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The Odds of the Dealer Busting in Blackjack

When a player or the dealer surpasses a total score of 21 in a game of blackjack, this is known as busting. Though the player often holds back due to the fear of the dealer having a better hand, understanding the odds of the dealer busting can allow for more aggressive gameplay.

Win or Lose

In a typical game of blackjack, if one player busts, the other wins. For instance, if the player goes over 21 before the dealer, the player will lose. If the dealer surpasses 21, on the other hand, the player will win. Many players are afraid to pursue aggressive gaming techniques due to the fear of busting, but they fail to remember that it is just as likely that the dealer will bust. The following information is about the probability of a dealer busting in any given situation.

Understanding the Bust Percentage

The bust percentage is a mathematical probability that shows the likelihood of a dealer busting when certain cards are showing. Since the players can only see the dealer's up-card, the bust percentage strategy uses this information alone. It is up to the player to use this strategy to make a decision regarding their next move based upon this up-card, the cards in their own hands and the probability that the dealer will bust.

The Values

When the dealer is showing a four, five or six as the up-card, this indicates the highest probability of the dealer busting. If the player has a good hand, they should double down. Conversely, if the dealer is showing an Ace, nine or 10, the player should follow a conservative strategy as the odds of the dealer busting are very low. If the dealer is showing any other card, the odds of busting are neutral and the player should proceed with caution.

Though this information is very useful, players cannot use this alone to play the game. They must combine it with a proven blackjack strategy in order to be successful.

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